ComplexWorld Workshop: Uncertainty in ATM


1st ComplexWorld Workshop: Uncertainty in ATM; definitions, sources, scales, challenges. Naples, Monday 27th of May, 2013, 13:00 to 18:00 h.

The objective of this workshop is: To obtain a critical review of the contents of the Section “Uncertainty on ATM” of the Position Paper (also included in the article “Uncertainty in ATM” in the ComplexWorld Wiki.) by researchers and project managers with different points of views (industry, academia and institutions)

Expected Outcome: Assessment of the research agenda proposed in the Position Paper.

Discussion agenda:

  1. Review of the definition of uncertainty. Is it possible to provide a unique definition? Given that uncertainty has an uncertain meaning (since it depends on the point of view), is it too ambitious to cover all possible concepts of uncertainty? Should one speak of different types of uncertainty? Should we just consider delay?
  2. Review of the classifications of the sources of uncertainty. Advantages and drawbacks as opposed to other classifications, for instance the classification according to the cause of occurrence: human, meteorological, technical and transparency of data.
  3. Review of the different scales identified in the ATM problem. Is there any relevant scale missing?
  4. Review of the research lines selected to analyze the research theme “Uncertainty in ATM” (selection based on the scales of the problem). Advantages and drawbacks as opposed to other selections. For example, a selection of research lines based on the different ATM actors: passenger, pilot, air controller, airline, airport, air navigation service provider.
  5. Review of the soundness of the different research challenges and case studies identified. Are they relevant, realistic, interesting? Comparison with the research challenges and case studies being considered by WP-E projects and PhDs that deal with uncertainty.
  6. Review of specific issues:
    1. Relationship between uncertainty and delay,
      Relationship between uncertainty and airport congestion,
      Relationship between uncertainty and safety,
      Relationship between uncertainty and wind/weather.
    2. Importance of the development of metrics for uncertainty. How is uncertainty measured by numbers? Strongly related with the type of uncertainty considered (e.g. delay).
    3. Advancement in the description of uncertainty caused by strong disturbances. Is considering only delay uncertainty enough to describe this type of uncertainty? What about other sources?
  7. Identification of missing topics.

To prepare the Workshop the following CW 2013 WS 1_Questionnaire will be sent to Participants some weeks before the meeting.